But it will probably get worse before it gets better. So generally I am a long term believer in the City. The crowds feel a bit older than they used to, but then again that could just be my circles. It seems like the biggest exodus from SF was the younger rental market, single people in their 20s. Also, generally the neighborhoods where there are single family homes (which is (un)fortunately most of the city), are pretty vibrant still. If anything high interest rates are actually keeping people from leaving SF. I am not sure about the history of detroit but SF single family housing real-estate is doing just fine, there doesn't seem to be an exodus of people selling their houses if they actually have a house in SF. FIDI and SOMA east of 4th are still fine, albeit quieter. Almost no one bought in SF proper but lots of people within a 30min BART ride of the city and still go into the city on weekends or work hybrid model on weekdays. So many of my coworkers and former coworkers bought houses in 20 while interest rates were low.
For my peers (mid-30s couples with dual incomes), COVID wasn't a time to leave the bay area, just a time to leave the SF rental market for the SF suburbs and buy a house. I think your observation of the suburbs doing well is astute. Crime is up, and it is unfortunate that you can't leave anything visible in your car most places in the city, but it was like that before the pandemic also. In the meantime, is it still worth visiting and living in? I think so, weather is great, nature and setting is great, still lots of weird and interesting things to do. It may not recover for a few years or a decade, but it will be back eventually. Is it going to recover? Can't guarantee it, but the city has faced worse. The biggest change for me has been the mission, specifically right around the BART stations, those couple blocks have gotten out of hand. Seriously if you think this is made up, go check it out, it’s actually kinda cool to go to a place where society is collapsing. There’s a feeling that crime can be committed with impunity. Without police and prosecutor follow through presence is useless. Which is laughable because while there were dozens of cops you could see em for a mile so the criminals just shifted their targets a bit. They were trying to get a handle on the rampant smash and grabs.
I was downtown in December and there were two cops on every corner. Walk into any store downtown and see every single thing under lock and key because otherwise people just walk in and make off with it. Visit the public injection site and watch people shoot up in public, in broad daylight. Walk around downtown, duck into soma for a bit. I recommend you check it out for yourself.
You obviously haven’t been back recently.
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